Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x1216…2068 sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,127 (-5%) realized −$1,053 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%52W / 74L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days−$182
14 days−$220
30 days−$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$715
other 16% −$468
crypto 3% +$89
world 1% −$151
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.2% -23.3% 33% 29% -16.7%
≤30d 32 -19.4% -27.1% 31% 28% -18.5%
≤90d 123 +10.0% -0.5% 40% 33% -15.6%
all 126 +12.0% +1.4% 41% 35% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 35% -14.5%
10% -8.3% 31% -22.7%
15% -17.2% 28% -30.1%
20% -25.3% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$78 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$1,053
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses52 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions5
Markets (closed)126 / 131
History coverage110d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $32 −$27 (-46%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $769 +$421 +55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $143 −$141 -99%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $72 −$14 -19%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 −$4 -13%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$11 -21%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $109 −$85 -78%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $154 −$57 -37%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $121 −$118 -98%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $62 +$16 +26%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 +$12 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $22 +$40 +184%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $62 +$6 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$14 -27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $88 +$96 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $463 −$18 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $536 +$249 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $221 −$217 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 30 $502 −$112 -22%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $117 −$115 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $241 −$150 -62%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $102 +$155 +152%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $26 $0 -0%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $41 +$43 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $255 −$145 -57%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $153 +$474 +309%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $102 +$148 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -93%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $102 +$161 +158%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 02 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $102 +$142 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $113 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $42 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 51¢ $457 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $205 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 47¢ $210 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $102 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $162 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $145 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $58 46h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $58 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $85 46h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 46h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 46h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $25 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $109 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $97 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 42¢ $51 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $32 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 35¢ $70 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 7¢ $10 2d
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 100¢ $62 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 39¢ $102 2d
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 35¢ $22 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $68 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $37 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.29 · official $126.29 (match) · 561 history records