Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1217…965e other 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 23% −$21
politics 9% −$9
culture 8% −$6
economics 7% −$6
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage132d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $174 −$2 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $135 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $429 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $458 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $424 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $330 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $452 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $155 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $346 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $383 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $192 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $415 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 3h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 5h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $45 5h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 6h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 9h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $45 11h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $45 12h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $45 14h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 14h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 16h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 18h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 22h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 24h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 29h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 36h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 37h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 39h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 41h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 42h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 43h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 45h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 47h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.62 · official $44.62 (match) · 1382 history records