Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
12 0x121b…dfbb other 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$5
world 42% +$2
politics 6% +$1
tech 5% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 13 +92.8% +74.4% 46% 15% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +92.8% +74.4% 46% 15% -9.2%
all 50 +22.7% +11.0% 46% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.0% 8% -9.8%
10% +0.4% 4% -18.4%
15% -9.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -18.2% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage461d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $6 $0 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $4 +$1 +19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $29 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $31 −$2 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +19%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 02 $1 $0 -19%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $2 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio May 31 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will X buy TikTok? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change? Apr 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hikaru Nakamura score the most points at the Freestyle Chess Pari Apr 09 $13 $0 +3%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? Apr 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 2m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $6 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $5 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 25h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $6 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $5 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $20 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $35 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $35 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $0 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $26 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $29 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $29 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $6 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $5 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records