Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

12 0x121c…395a crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$854 (+13%) realized +$854 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown68%max

Avg bet$336per market

Trades / day6.1pace

Fees−$20est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+4.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+15.2%	+4.2%	50%	50%	+0.4%
≤30d	18	+15.2%	+4.2%	50%	50%	+0.4%
≤90d	18	+15.2%	+4.2%	50%	50%	+0.4%
all	18	+15.2%	+4.2%	50%	50%	+0.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.2%	50%	+0.4%
10%	-5.7%	44%	-9.2%
15%	-14.8%	44%	-18.0%
20%	-23.2%	39%	-26.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 44% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$502) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +79% → late -49% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$332 vs −$255 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.3 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized+$854

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$20

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage6d

Avg bet$336

Trades / day6.1

Drawdown68%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$37	$36	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 29	$258	−$221	-86%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$10	−$1	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 25	$179	−$179	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 25	$113	−$113	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 25	$241	−$241	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 25	$10	+$7	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET	Jun 25	$110	−$110	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 25	$329	+$298	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 25	$307	+$421	+137%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$361	+$57	+16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$1,423	−$1,410	-99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 25	$885	+$885	+100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$502	+$384	+76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$786	+$416	+53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$546	+$240	+44%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl	Jun 23	$203	−$11	-5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$72	+$282	+391%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$38	1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	SELL Germany	4¢	$37	3h
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	26¢	$258	4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	32¢	$10	4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	36¢	$9	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$179	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$241	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$10	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$103	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$10	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$140	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$189	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$227	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$80	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$2	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$108	4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$418	4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	85¢	$361	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	1¢	$14	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,118	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$305	5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	49¢	$885	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$885	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	68¢	$389	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	33¢	$103	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,202	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$786	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$786	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$192	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.28 · official $36.28 (match) · 47 history records