Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x121d…832a world 139 markets active 3h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$746 (+3%) realized +$229 · open +$517
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate55%73W / 59L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days−$160
14 days+$122
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$1,361
other 7% +$393
politics 4% −$805
sports 3% +$9
crypto 3% −$222
weather 2% +$28
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 23% -9.0%
≤30d 39 +17.6% +6.4% 54% 23% -8.1%
≤90d 122 -13.9% -22.1% 53% 22% -9.1%
all 132 -9.6% -18.2% 55% 25% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 25% -7.9%
10% -26.0% 16% -16.7%
15% -33.2% 11% -24.7%
20% -39.7% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$74 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$2,057
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$517
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses73 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)132 / 139
History coverage129d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 60¢ 98¢ $1,000 $1,635 +$635 (+63%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 83¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 88¢ 85¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 83¢ 10¢ $100 $13 −$87 (-87%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-72%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 18 $1,000 +$32 +3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $63 +$30 +48%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $71 +$8 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $50 −$18 -35%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $83 −$2 -3%
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,100 −$319 -29%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$17 -16%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $90 −$6 -7%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,520 −$1,020 -67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$252 +50%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $700 +$394 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $711 +$9 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $650 +$299 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $826 −$4 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$19 -37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $2,135 +$243 +11%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 12 $17 +$228 +1377%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $1,000 +$53 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $60 −$33 -55%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $500 +$98 +20%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $1,500 +$214 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $500 −$22 -4%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $110 May 4-10? May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 May 4-10? May 12 $117 −$47 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $334 −$334 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw? May 08 $7 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Zachary Svajda May 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jiri Lehecka May 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals May 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 2h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? SELL No 99¢ $728 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? SELL No 99¢ $60 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1,000 12h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 93¢ $93 12h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July SELL No 92¢ $106 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? SELL No 99¢ $8 12h
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 97¢ $80 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? SELL No 98¢ $236 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 53¢ $32 28h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 80¢ $32 37h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $100 37h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 81¢ $49 37h
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 91¢ $104 38h
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 96¢ $102 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 96¢ $1,000 45h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $83 2d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 2d
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 48¢ $48 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 75¢ $105 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 2d
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 2d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,056.86 · official $2,056.86 (match) · 705 history records