Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x121f…8e59 sports 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%17W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$5
other 22% −$1
politics 18% −$2
economics 14% −$2
culture 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
world 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -10.4%
all 170 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses17 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage168d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 10 $42 −$1 -4%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $46 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $113 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $93 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $124 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $261 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $326 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $329 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $107 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $204 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $101 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 7h
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W SELL No 92¢ $41 12d
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W BUY No 95¢ $18 12d
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W BUY No 95¢ $24 12d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $46 23d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $46 24d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $46 35d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $46 35d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $39 111d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $39 111d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $51 111d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $51 111d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $52 111d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $52 111d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 111d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $50 111d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $51 111d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $51 111d
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 95¢ $51 111d
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 95¢ $51 111d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 111d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 111d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 112d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 112d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $7 112d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $46 112d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $46 112d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $43 112d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $7 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 693 history records