Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1225…e2ed crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6 (+4%) realized +$9 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%39W / 54L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$6
other 10% −$5
world 8% +$9
politics 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -65.3% -68.6% 12% 12% -68.5%
≤30d 11 -44.5% -49.8% 18% 18% -49.8%
≤90d 67 -29.9% -36.6% 37% 37% -23.8%
all 93 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 41% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 41% -8.4%
10% -18.3% 40% -17.1%
15% -26.2% 37% -25.1%
20% -33.4% 28% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses39 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 08 $1 +$1 +60%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +50%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 09 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 04 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 25 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 24 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 26d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 26d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 26d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 26d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 32d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.44 (match) · 197 history records