Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1226…f998 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$215 (-3%) realized −$216 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%25W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day87.8pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$479
other 16% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 47% -18.7%
≤30d 51 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 47% -18.7%
≤90d 51 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 47% -18.7%
all 51 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 47% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 47% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 47% -26.4%
15% -36.3% 41% -33.5%
20% -42.5% 35% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$104 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$216
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses25 / 26
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage2d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day87.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $406 −$400 -98%
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando Jun 25 $371 −$155 -42%
Set 1 Winner: Dedura vs Hernando Jun 25 $66 +$34 +52%
ITF Bakio: Oscar Weightman vs Edward Winter Jun 25 $171 +$44 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $162 −$160 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $152 +$187 +123%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $72 −$70 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $167 −$167 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina Jun 25 $36 +$18 +51%
Set 2 Winner: Kawa vs Day Jun 25 $58 +$42 +73%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $182 −$182 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng Jun 25 $363 +$124 +34%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 25 $557 +$297 +53%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $102 +$68 +67%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $101 +$58 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $207 +$183 +88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $200 +$6 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Jun 24 $71 +$29 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino Jun 24 $20 +$21 +104%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $152 +$164 +108%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Carle vs Vandromme Jun 24 $55 +$15 +28%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui Jun 24 $51 +$62 +123%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Djere vs Zheng Jun 24 $41 +$67 +165%
Set 1 Winner: Diallo vs Etcheverry Jun 24 $53 −$52 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Quevedo vs Liu Jun 24 $180 +$119 +66%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Jun 24 $156 +$105 +67%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $222 +$107 +48%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $111 −$110 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Andreeva vs Day Jun 24 $67 +$33 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Kayla Day Jun 24 $121 +$70 +57%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $478 −$478 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $82 −$80 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 24 $92 +$108 +118%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniel Evans vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Jun 24 $51 −$10 -20%
Set 2 Winner: Zheng vs Tauson Jun 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 24 $32 −$32 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $101 −$75 -74%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mejia vs Heide Jun 24 $49 +$49 +101%
Set 1 Winner: Sun vs Dodin Jun 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Onclin vs Mochizuki Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 52m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2h
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando BUY Diego Dedura 19¢ $18 2h
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando BUY Diego Dedura 16¢ $16 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2h
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando BUY Diego Dedura 34¢ $34 2h
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando BUY Diego Dedura 43¢ $43 2h
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando BUY Diego Dedura 58¢ $101 3h
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando SELL Diego Dedura 91¢ $212 3h
ITF Bakio: Oscar Weightman vs Edward Winter BUY Oscar Weightman 85¢ $100 4h
ITF Bakio: Oscar Weightman vs Edward Winter BUY Oscar Weightman 72¢ $71 4h
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando BUY Diego Dedura 66¢ $23 4h
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando BUY Diego Dedura 70¢ $70 4h
Set 1 Winner: Dedura vs Hernando BUY Dedura 65¢ $66 4h
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Sergio Callejon Hernando BUY Diego Dedura 66¢ $66 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 55¢ $61 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 46¢ $102 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 30¢ $102 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 19¢ $20 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Vilius Gaubas 52¢ $101 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng SELL Michael Zheng 92¢ $487 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Vilius Gaubas 34¢ $51 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 92¢ $443 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Clement Tabur 79¢ $170 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 72¢ $318 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 72¢ $22 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate SELL Nicolas Mejia 72¢ $72 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.33 · official $101.33 (match) · 153 history records