Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x1227…4f9f other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$912 (+1%) realized +$912 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,062per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$67
other 36% −$44
economics 4% −$5
world 4% −$2
sports 4% +$1,006
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +2.4% -7.4% 9% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 90 +1.1% -8.5% 8% 6% -8.7%
all 90 +1.1% -8.5% 8% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 6% -8.7%
10% -17.2% 6% -17.4%
15% -25.2% 4% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,394) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$2 · ×65.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.63 per $1 lost it wins $5.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized+$912
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,062
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $825 $824 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,552 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,665 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $4,414 −$7 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,108 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $765 +$1 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,493 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $2,149 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,523 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $2,923 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,999 −$5 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 21 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,484 −$3 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 20 $58 +$52 +90%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $45 +$42 +93%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,394 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 07 $853 +$962 +113%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 01 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $2,454 −$2 -0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 22 $39 +$11 +29%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $913 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,600 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $903 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $825 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,193 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,195 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,516 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,517 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,411 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,412 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,663 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,665 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,493 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,495 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,444 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,446 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $775 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $776 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,259 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,261 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,106 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,108 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,216 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,012 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,014 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,087 17d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $715 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $716 19d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $783 19d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $784 19d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $765 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $824.19 · official $824.19 (match) · 273 history records