Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
12 0x1227…3c86 other 81 markets active 3d ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 62L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$12
other 15% +$5
politics 9% −$6
sports 3% +$44
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -20.4%
≤30d 17 -0.0% -9.6% 12% 6% -10.5%
≤90d 59 -9.8% -18.4% 14% 12% -11.4%
all 79 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 16% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 16% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 16% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 14% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage604d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $152 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $76 $0 +1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $119 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $132 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $269 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $125 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $135 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $127 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $127 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $127 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $132 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $129 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $123 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $129 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $149 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 11 $22 $0 -2%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $16 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $9 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 18d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 18d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 19d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 20d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.77 · official $123.77 (match) · 295 history records