Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1229…df38 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,383 (+7%) realized +$5,750 · open +$1,633
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$846per market
Trades / day98.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$56,465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$3,114
other 31% +$118
finance 19% +$2,145
world 5% +$344
sports 2% +$3,223
economics 2% −$183
tech 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +126.1% +104.6% 69% 50% +49.9%
≤30d 47 +58.5% +43.4% 49% 28% +11.1%
≤90d 50 +55.1% +40.3% 50% 26% +10.9%
all 50 +55.1% +40.3% 50% 26% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.3% 26% +10.9%
10% +26.9% 22% +0.3%
15% ← realistic here +14.6% 22% -9.4%
20% +3.4% 18% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late +75% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$346 vs −$63 · ×5.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$56,465
Realized+$5,750
Unrealized+$1,633
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions84
Markets (closed)50 / 123
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$846
Trades / day98.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $6,296 $7,125 +$829 (+13%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $3,899 $4,323 +$424 (+11%)
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 85¢ 87¢ $4,162 $4,263 +$101 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $3,936 $4,101 +$165 (+4%)
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,759 $2,818 +$59 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,449 $2,468 +$19 (+1%)
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,405 $2,454 +$49 (+2%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $2,055 $2,279 +$224 (+11%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 36¢ 38¢ $1,913 $2,014 +$101 (+5%)
Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,751 $1,796 +$45 (+3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No 91¢ 91¢ $1,508 $1,508 +$0 (+0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? No 86¢ 93¢ $1,330 $1,438 +$108 (+8%)
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,258 $1,347 +$89 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,185 $1,193 +$8 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,174 $1,182 +$9 (+1%)
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? No 89¢ 93¢ $1,103 $1,150 +$47 (+4%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $934 $936 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,198 $875 −$323 (-27%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 97¢ $744 $849 +$105 (+14%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $774 $775 +$1 (+0%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by July 31? No 96¢ 99¢ $739 $764 +$25 (+3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 70¢ 99¢ $526 $741 +$215 (+41%)
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $724 $732 +$8 (+1%)
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $635 $650 +$15 (+2%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 96¢ 98¢ $552 $561 +$9 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Jun 29 $744 +$3,196 +430%
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026? Jun 29 $47 +$1 +3%
Will Morgan Stanley fail by end of 2026? Jun 29 $12 $0 +3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 28 $0 $0 -67%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the Jun 26 $41 −$5 -11%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $4,376 +$54 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 25 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Wells Fargo fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $65 +$130 +200%
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama Jun 25 $17 +$13 +75%
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $316 +$706 +223%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 24 $1,000 −$80 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $116 −$69 -60%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Jun 23 $75 +$11 +15%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 23 $64 +$718 +1120%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $53 +$42 +78%
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Jun 22 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 22 $3,756 +$1,746 +46%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Jun 19 $91 −$8 -9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 18 $5,180 +$69 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $187 −$41 -22%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $878 +$5 +1%
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere Jun 17 $105 +$45 +43%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Jun 15 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $472 −$174 -37%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $180 −$62 -34%
Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $560 −$49 -9%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $122 −$25 -20%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $73 −$29 -39%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $172 −$7 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $88 −$6 -6%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 10 $1,260 +$7 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? Jun 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,099 +$816 +74%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $2,700 −$513 -19%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 08 $36 −$16 -44%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,020 −$454 -44%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 06 $330 +$778 +235%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Jun 05 $15 +$124 +818%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 05 $65 −$9 -14%
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 02 $4,161 +$74 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December? Jun 01 $99 +$9 +9%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June? Jun 01 $1,009 +$102 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 29 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? May 28 $32 −$1 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 27 $193 +$9 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus SELL Yes 94¢ $188 30m
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus SELL Yes 95¢ $94 31m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof BUY Yes 90¢ $1,069 31m
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY Yes 86¢ $868 32m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 38m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 40m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 44m
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will BNY fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY No 21¢ $63 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $23 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $144 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2,464 2h
Will Citigroup fail by end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $89 2h
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? BUY No 98¢ $7 3h
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 6h
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 6h
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 6h
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial electio BUY No 37¢ $114 6h
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 6h
Will BNY fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $85 6h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,464.84 · official $56,464.85 (match) · 3500 history records