Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

12 0x122b…ac59 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (318 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$1,839 (+2%) realized +$2,296 · open −$457

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate45%5W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6,447per market

Trades / day318.0pace

Fees−$2,414est.

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+0.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+10.6%	+0.1%	45%	36%	-5.6%
≤30d	11	+10.6%	+0.1%	45%	36%	-5.6%
≤90d	11	+10.6%	+0.1%	45%	36%	-5.6%
all	11	+10.6%	+0.1%	45%	36%	-5.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover318.0 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+0.1%	36%	-5.6%
10%	-9.5%	27%	-14.6%
15% ← realistic here	-18.3%	18%	-22.9%
20%	-26.3%	18%	-30.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 87% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$1,680 vs −$1,388 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$311

Realized+$2,296

Unrealized−$457

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses5 / 6

Est. fees paid−$2,414

Open positions2

Markets (closed)11 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$6,447

Trades / day318.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Under	35¢	32¢	$338	$304	−$34 (-10%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Under	3¢	0¢	$430	$7	−$423 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$32,688	−$3,351	-10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$230	+$717	+312%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$11,991	+$4,222	+35%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$8,215	−$1,494	-18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$7,299	−$1,805	-25%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$48	−$46	-97%
United States to win the second half?	Jun 19	$1,869	+$364	+20%
Spread: United States (-2.5)	Jun 19	$6	$0	+3%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$8,311	−$1,561	-19%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$1,002	−$72	-7%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$3,456	+$3,098	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$23	0m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$88	0m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$67	0m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$24	0m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$5	0m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$134	0m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	65¢	$1,831	2m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	65¢	$5,626	2m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	65¢	$13	2m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	68¢	$3,987	2m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	67¢	$3,926	2m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	35¢	$139	13m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	35¢	$20	13m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	35¢	$2	13m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	35¢	$2,627	13m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$200	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$46	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$24	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$10	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$200	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$39	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$200	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$200	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$2	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$738	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$200	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$200	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$1,896	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	40¢	$30	15m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	44¢	$50	15m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.06 · official $311.06 (match) · 320 history records