Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x122c…fbed other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$92 · open −$92
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3,265per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$6,266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$636
other 50% +$413
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 5 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤90d 5 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
all 5 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 0% -5.8%
10% -14.8% 0% -14.8%
15% ← realistic here -23.1% 0% -23.1%
20% -30.6% 0% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$228 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6,266
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,265
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 88¢ 88¢ $3,520 $3,540 +$20 (+1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 72¢ 74¢ $1,120 $1,159 +$39 (+3%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1,028 $971 −$57 (-6%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 40¢ 36¢ $628 $573 −$55 (-9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8,693 +$136 +2%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $12,113 +$650 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5,037 +$312 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +5%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,939 +$43 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1,129 0m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,051 0m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 40¢ $639 0m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $1,567 0m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $87 2m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $230 2m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $21 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 8m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 12m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $3,533 34m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $209 34m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $810 34m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $394 34m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $23 34m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $1,788 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $108 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,806 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,752 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $881 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $538 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $490 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $3,101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,266.06 · official $6,251.28 (match) · 117 history records