Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x122c…82d8 other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 1280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$92 (-18%) realized −$78 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%18W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$1
other 29% −$44
world 11% −$15
sports 11% −$9
politics 6% +$17
economics 4% −$7
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -48.5% -53.4% 23% 18% -46.6%
≤30d 24 -42.0% -47.6% 25% 21% -34.3%
≤90d 24 -42.0% -47.6% 25% 21% -34.3%
all 85 -36.0% -42.1% 21% 20% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 20% -22.3%
10% -47.7% 19% -29.8%
15% -52.7% 18% -36.6%
20% -57.4% 16% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1280d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses18 / 67
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage1280d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup: Monday - Will Serbia beat Cameroon? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
World Cup: Tuesday - Will Netherlands beat Qatar? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
World Cup: Tuesday - Will United States beat Iran? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
World Cup: Monday - Will South Korea beat Ghana? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
World Cup: Tuesday - Will Ecuador beat Senegal? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +276%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +87%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $6 +$10 +159%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $9 −$5 -53%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Nov 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 05 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 28 $8 −$4 -47%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 21 $6 +$2 +39%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Oct 18 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 08 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Plasma >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Sep 25 $13 −$6 -50%
Jumper airdrop in Q3 2025? Sep 23 $3 −$3 -93%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? Sep 04 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Sep 04 $7 +$5 +72%
Linea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Sep 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
US recession in 2025? Jun 11 $7 +$7 +97%
MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 35m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 54m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $7 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 66¢ $7 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 81¢ $9 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 25h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 42h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 44h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.57 · official $4.57 (match) · 143 history records