Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x122d…95fe other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1994 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$106 (-0%) realized +$93 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,363per market
Trades / day1994.0pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$42
politics 27% −$15
world 12% +$36
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1994 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.7% -8.0% 21% 3% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +1.7% -8.0% 21% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 33 +1.7% -8.0% 21% 3% -9.4%
all 33 +1.7% -8.0% 21% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1994.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 3% -9.4%
10% -16.8% 3% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$833) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
47.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$2 · ×9.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,363
Trades / day1994.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 98¢ 97¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $2,384 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $60 −$29 -49%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $13,029 −$15 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $667 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $326 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6,612 −$3 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18,702 +$48 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,924 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $1,887 +$36 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1,216 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $833 +$28 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $919 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $29 +$29 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 4m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 10m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 17m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 25m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 27m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 27m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 28m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 30m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 32m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 32m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 32m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 32m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 33m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 34m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 36m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 36m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 37m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.86 · official $401.86 (match) · 3500 history records