Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

12 0x122e…375e other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$239 (+26%) realized +$330 · open −$91

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$233per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+33.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+47.3%	+33.3%	100%	100%	+33.3%
≤30d	1	+47.3%	+33.3%	100%	100%	+33.3%
≤90d	1	+47.3%	+33.3%	100%	100%	+33.3%
all	1	+47.3%	+33.3%	100%	100%	+33.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.3%	100%	+33.3%
10%	+20.5%	100%	+20.5%
15%	+8.9%	100%	+8.9%
20%	-1.8%	0%	-1.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +47% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$323 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$152

Realized+$330

Unrealized−$91

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage18d

Avg bet$233

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	6¢	$95	$67	−$28 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	6¢	$98	$52	−$46 (-47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	11¢	$50	$33	−$17 (-34%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Jun 28	$683	+$323	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	SELL Canada	100¢	$1,007	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY Canada	67¢	$683	2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$100	13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$47	17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	17d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.04 · official $152.04 (match) · 23 history records