Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1230…d4c3 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-5%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day88.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$6
sports 5% +$8
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -13.2% -21.5% 41% 37% -9.4%
≤30d 46 -13.2% -21.5% 41% 37% -9.4%
≤90d 46 -13.2% -21.5% 41% 37% -9.4%
all 46 -13.2% -21.5% 41% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 37% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 30% -18.0%
15% -35.8% 28% -26.0%
20% -42.1% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day88.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 87¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner T1 64¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 29 $79 +$140 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$87 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$35 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +80%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $20 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$5 -49%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $18 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.04 · official $10.04 (match) · 108 history records