Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
12 0x1233…3185 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$239 (+15%) realized +$220 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$222
politics 32% −$19
sports 10% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.2% +5.2% 71% 57% +6.4%
≤30d 7 +16.2% +5.2% 71% 57% +6.4%
≤90d 7 +16.2% +5.2% 71% 57% +6.4%
all 7 +16.2% +5.2% 71% 57% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 57% +6.4%
10% -4.9% 29% -3.8%
15% -14.1% 29% -13.1%
20% -22.5% 14% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$11 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.53 per $1 lost it wins $10.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage13d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $200 $259 +$59 (+30%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 64¢ $194 $154 −$40 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $157 +$31 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $151 +$57 +38%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 24 $307 −$21 -7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $214 +$117 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $185 +$29 +16%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $182 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.86 · official $413.53 (match) · 17 history records