Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1239…d03a crypto 33 markets active 6d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%28W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$4
crypto 21% $0
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.3% -13.4% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 7 -3.0% -12.3% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 24 -0.7% -10.1% 79% 0% -9.7%
all 33 -0.5% -9.9% 85% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses28 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage96d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $142 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $517 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $240 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 10? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 9? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 8? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 30? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 27? Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 25? Mar 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 23? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 13? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 10? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 9? Mar 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on March 8? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 68¢ $53 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 83¢ $100 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 83¢ $100 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 71¢ $87 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 70¢ $140 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $140 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $318 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $192 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $193 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $193 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $142 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $136 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $136 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 69d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records