Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x123b…a7af world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$2
other 9% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 18 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 6% -9.2%
all 28 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -9.1%
10% -17.0% 4% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 4% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage453d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $44 $44 +$1 (+1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $25 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $56 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $14 $0 +2%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 12 $9 $0 +1%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 12 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $24 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $25 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $20 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $20 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $40 32h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.75 · official $44.41 (match) · 95 history records