Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x123c…ddc5 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate78%42W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +6.4% -3.7% 78% 59% -6.4%
≤30d 54 +6.4% -3.7% 78% 59% -6.4%
≤90d 54 +6.4% -3.7% 78% 59% -6.4%
all 54 +6.4% -3.7% 78% 59% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 59% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 52% -15.3%
15% -21.3% 33% -23.5%
20% -29.0% 20% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses42 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records