Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x123c…598e other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 420d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$1
world 27% +$2
other 26% +$1
sports 12% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 30% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 30% 0% -9.1%
all 38 -2.2% -11.6% 55% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 11% -9.2%
10% -20.0% 5% -17.9%
15% -27.7% 3% -25.8%
20% -34.8% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage420d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $92 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 07 $112 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 06 $18 $0 -1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Liberals win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Elect Apr 30 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 29 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 29 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? Apr 28 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n Apr 28 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 27 $23 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 27 $149 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 26 $1 $0 +28%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E Apr 26 $1 $0 +13%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? Apr 26 $2 $0 -13%
Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 24 $139 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the Northwest Territories seat in th Apr 24 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $51 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $13 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $46 29h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $51 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $51 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $15 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $0 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $6 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records