Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x123d…1cab other 39 markets active 5d ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-29%) realized −$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% −$126
other 33% −$60
sports 17% +$58
finance 5% −$31
economics 3% −$19
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 29% -25.4%
≤30d 28 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 29% -25.4%
≤90d 29 -2.6% -11.9% 28% 28% -28.2%
all 38 -4.6% -13.7% 26% 26% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 26% -38.2%
10% -22.0% 26% -44.1%
15% -29.5% 24% -49.5%
20% -36.4% 24% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage136d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+198%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $66 −$64 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $56 +$41 +73%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $33 −$32 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $32 −$31 -97%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $8 +$10 +120%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Patrik Schick: 2+ Goals Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Son Heungmin: 2+ Goals Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $17 +$55 +316%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Patrik Schick: 3+ Goals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $11 +$24 +216%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$68 +943%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? Apr 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jan 31 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Powell say "SEP" 4+ times during January press conference? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 31 $2 +$8 +474%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 28 $1 $0 -9%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Shelton vs. Sinner: Match O/U 36.5 Jan 28 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Djokovic Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Musetti vs. Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 28 $8 +$3 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 87¢ $13 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 86¢ $15 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 87¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 7¢ $6 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 85¢ $20 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 86¢ $21 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 84¢ $8 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records