Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
12 0x123f…5143 sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$581 (+5%) realized +$571 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate55%44W / 36L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$210
14 days−$312
30 days−$806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$287
other 29% −$208
world 18% −$86
politics 9% +$1,202
culture 2% −$16
tech 2% −$84
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -10.7% -19.2% 53% 28% -13.4%
≤30d 78 -8.9% -17.5% 55% 32% -16.5%
≤90d 80 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 32% -6.1%
all 80 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 32% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 32% -6.1%
10% -18.1% 18% -15.1%
15% -26.1% 6% -23.3%
20% -33.3% 2% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$56 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$571
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses44 / 36
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage46d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 84¢ 91¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 94¢ 96¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $701 −$17 -2%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $202 −$70 -35%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $302 +$41 +14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$20 -20%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $100 −$53 -53%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $20 −$9 -47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$57 -57%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $201 +$21 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $252 +$79 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$90 -88%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $202 +$58 +29%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $300 −$49 -16%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $304 +$13 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$33 -33%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $110 −$15 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$7 -7%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$28 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $100 −$41 -41%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 14 $101 −$17 -17%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 01 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $255 −$123 -48%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $202 +$41 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 30 $101 −$1 -1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 −$42 -42%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 30 $101 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $101 −$40 -40%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $101 +$30 +29%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 30 $101 +$14 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Malaysia vs Nepal May 30 $102 −$99 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $101 +$74 +73%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$92 -91%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw? May 30 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $200 +$14 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 94¢ $100 45m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 94¢ $100 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 95¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 84¢ $101 4h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 93¢ $117 11h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 79¢ $101 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $100 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $56 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 91¢ $102 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $82 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 55¢ $102 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $101 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 24h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 40¢ $47 27h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $100 31h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 89¢ $100 31h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 10¢ $10 32h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 69¢ $13 32h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 53¢ $10 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.89 · official $209.89 (match) · 210 history records