Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
12 0x1242…9077 sports 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$5,227 (+22%) realized +$4,886 · open +$341
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%76W / 82L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$283
14 days−$6
30 days+$3,102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$4,947
other 2% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +36.4% +23.4% 57% 57% +12.4%
≤30d 50 +28.4% +16.2% 50% 50% +18.1%
≤90d 95 +27.9% +15.7% 48% 47% +18.6%
all 158 +27.0% +14.9% 48% 46% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.9% 46% +8.9%
10% +3.9% 44% -1.5%
15% -6.2% 42% -11.0%
20% -15.4% 35% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$104 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$946
Realized+$4,886
Unrealized+$341
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses76 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage155d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) OlyBet SB 43¢ 100¢ $254 $586 +$332 (+131%)
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group A OlyBet SB 43¢ 47¢ $296 $326 +$30 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group A Honvéd 38¢ 53¢ $24 $33 +$9 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $73 +$94 +128%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $93 −$92 -99%
Map Handicap: KRX.A (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) Jun 25 $41 +$45 +109%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $515 +$521 +101%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $367 −$362 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $51 +$110 +216%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Jun 20 $252 −$248 -98%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $132 +$128 +97%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $55 +$77 +140%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $485 −$302 -62%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $73 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $231 +$58 +25%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 17 $60 −$58 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $253 +$325 +129%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $205 −$201 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $89 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $218 +$92 +42%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $506 +$301 +60%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $552 +$509 +92%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $238 +$260 +109%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $336 +$208 +62%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $268 +$306 +114%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $271 −$267 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $720 +$1,048 +146%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $211 +$197 +93%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $227 −$16 -7%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $546 +$206 +38%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $54 +$142 +262%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $80 +$232 +291%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 09 $245 +$442 +181%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $715 −$704 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $14 −$14 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $302 +$405 +134%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $231 −$226 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: paiN (-3.5) vs FlyQuest (+3.5) Jun 07 $132 −$14 -10%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $78 +$82 +105%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $118 −$115 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $249 +$334 +134%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $257 −$253 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $28 +$199 +711%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $142 −$140 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $28 −$28 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $16 −$15 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 01 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs May 31 $154 +$278 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Honvéd 38¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner SELL OlyBet SB 100¢ $167 1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY OlyBet SB 45¢ $199 1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 43¢ $73 1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY OlyBet SB 39¢ $102 1h
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 37¢ $4 1h
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 43¢ $254 1h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Donstu Esports 53¢ $93 47h
Valorant: DRX Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 38¢ $33 2d
Map Handicap: KRX.A (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) BUY DRX Academy 47¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 49¢ $200 4d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 49¢ $315 4d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 54¢ $367 5d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 31¢ $51 5d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Dallas Wings 47¢ $252 8d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $132 8d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 41¢ $55 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $184 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ $282 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $204 9d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $12 10d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $4 10d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $1 10d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $2 10d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 28¢ $54 10d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 22¢ $60 10d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 40¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 40¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 40¢ $36 10d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 40¢ $18 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $945.63 · official $945.63 (match) · 388 history records