Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1246…2324 crypto 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9,679 (+43%) realized +$9,679 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%188W / 559L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day146.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$939
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 654 -48.8% -53.7% 23% 20% -23.7%
≤30d 747 -41.3% -46.9% 25% 22% -19.2%
≤90d 747 -41.3% -46.9% 25% 22% -19.2%
all 747 -41.3% -46.9% 25% 22% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover146.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.9% 22% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -52.0% 18% -27.0%
15% -56.6% 13% -34.0%
20% -60.9% 10% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$9,679
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses188 / 559
Open positions0
Markets (closed)747 / 419
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day146.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 747 Trades
no open positions (450 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +223%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +92%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $14 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $13 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.70 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records