Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1247…d5d9 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$192 (+5%) realized +$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate100%44W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 5% -5.0%
≤30d 44 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 5% -5.0%
≤90d 44 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 5% -5.0%
all 44 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 5% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 5% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -14.1%
15% -22.2% 0% -22.4%
20% -29.8% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses44 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $91 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $126 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $145 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $132 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $140 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $63 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $81 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $115 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $66 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $49 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $64 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $123 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $191 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $125 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $200 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $183 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $131 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $200 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $124 +$12 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $44 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $89 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $132 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $140 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $63 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $62 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $34 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $81 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $115 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $45 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $96 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records