Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1249…eb1e sports 827 markets active 2d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$68 (+3%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%393W / 430L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$7
14 days−$24
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$75
other 4% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.5% -30.8% 36% 36% -30.8%
≤30d 82 -5.7% -14.7% 45% 45% -13.2%
≤90d 560 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 45% -11.6%
all 823 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 47% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 47% -8.3%
10% -18.3% 47% -17.1%
15% -26.2% 46% -25.1%
20% -33.4% 45% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses393 / 430
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)823 / 827
History coverage124d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 823 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 26 $2 +$2 +109%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 25 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $2 +$2 +119%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +129%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$7 +139%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $3 +$5 +172%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $3 +$3 +82%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $2 +$3 +123%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $4 +$4 +107%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 +$2 +118%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 46h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 47h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 33¢ $3 3d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 47¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $4 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $2 4d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 50¢ $2 4d
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 47¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 5d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $2 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $12 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 7d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $2 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $5 7d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 41¢ $5 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 8d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $8 8d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $2 8d
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $6 8d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $5 8d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 41¢ $1 8d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 44¢ $2 8d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $2 8d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.53 · official $8.53 (match) · 1975 history records