Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
12 0x124b…bd60 other 626 markets active 3h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,330 (+12%) realized +$9,291 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate90%562W / 60L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$2,623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$1,469
14 days+$1,774
30 days+$2,187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$6,499
world 6% +$697
sports 3% +$356
crypto 0% +$14
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +23.8% +12.0% 92% 27% +9.7%
≤30d 144 +19.5% +8.1% 92% 28% +3.3%
≤90d 622 +19.0% +7.6% 90% 19% -0.4%
all 622 +19.0% +7.6% 90% 19% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 19% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -2.7% 14% -10.0%
15% -12.1% 10% -18.7%
20% -20.7% 7% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.37 per $1 lost it wins $6.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$2,623
Realized+$9,291
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses562 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)622 / 626
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$127
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 622 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals No 89¢ 92¢ $2,257 $2,316 +$59 (+3%)
Víctor Muñoz: 2+ goals No 98¢ 89¢ $245 $222 −$22 (-9%)
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 98¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Takefusa Kubo: 4+ shots No 98¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the World Cup? Jun 20 $27 +$2 +9%
Ramón Sosa: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 $0 +15%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 20 $251 +$21 +8%
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots Jun 19 $47 +$1 +2%
Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots Jun 19 $80 +$2 +2%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 19 $94 +$5 +6%
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals Jun 19 $82 +$7 +9%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots Jun 19 $77 $0 -0%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $190 +$58 +31%
Will Brazil be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 18 $46 +$2 +5%
Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots Jun 18 $13 $0 +2%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists Jun 18 $18 +$9 +49%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists Jun 17 $68 +$75 +112%
Noni Madueke: 1+ shots Jun 17 $9 +$4 +40%
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ shots Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $133 +$33 +25%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots Jun 17 $136 +$60 +44%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $110 +$2 +2%
Christoph Baumgartner: 2+ goals Jun 17 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 17 $13 $0 +3%
Warren Zaïre-Emery: 2+ goals Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Giorgian De Arrascaeta: 1+ goals Jun 16 $454 +$35 +8%
Ronald Araújo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1,835 +$114 +6%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $34 +$2 +7%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots Jun 15 $32 +$3 +11%
Cucurella: 1+ shots Jun 15 $19 $0 +2%
Will Amadou Onana be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Leandro Trossard be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Garry Rodrigues: 4+ shots Jun 15 $69 +$2 +3%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Jun 15 $92 +$4 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Pedri: 1+ shots Jun 15 $64 +$10 +16%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 15 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Neymar score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Ryan Gravenberch: 2+ assists Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Teun Koopmeiners: 5+ shots Jun 15 $32 +$1 +3%
Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots Jun 15 $32 +$1 +3%
Justin Kluivert: 5+ shots Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Keisuke Gotō: 5+ shots Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Noa Lang: 5+ shots Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Guus Til: 5+ shots Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots Jun 14 $23 +$12 +52%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY No 92¢ $63 2h
Will Japan win the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $12 2h
Will Japan win the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $7 2h
Will Japan win the World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY No 90¢ $33 3h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $10 4h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY No 90¢ $1,910 4h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $248 4h
Ramón Sosa: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $1 8h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 91¢ $157 10h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $35 10h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $32 12h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $26 12h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $42 15h
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals BUY No 92¢ $58 15h
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals BUY No 92¢ $23 15h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists BUY No 94¢ $94 16h
Víctor Muñoz: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $245 16h
Takefusa Kubo: 4+ shots BUY No 98¢ $10 16h
Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots BUY No 98¢ $80 17h
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $47 17h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots BUY Yes $0 17h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals SELL No 86¢ $133 17h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots SELL No 49¢ $103 18h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots SELL No 50¢ $125 19h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals SELL No 94¢ $98 25h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots SELL No 68¢ $27 27h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots SELL No 50¢ $41 28h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals SELL No 80¢ $18 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,623.33 · official $2,623.33 (match) · 3500 history records