Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x124e…a8a9 other 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,438 (+17%) realized +$2,085 · open +$353
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%101W / 98L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$44
14 days+$115
30 days+$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$2,798
tech 25% +$552
sports 15% +$179
politics 6% −$4
world 5% −$401
finance 5% −$441
crypto 4% −$338
culture 1% +$106
economics 1% +$32
weather 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +125.8% +104.3% 100% 100% +119.5%
≤30d 21 +11.3% +0.7% 48% 43% +8.1%
≤90d 86 +29.2% +16.9% 59% 53% +36.6%
all 199 +6.4% -3.8% 51% 45% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 45% +7.2%
10% -13.0% 39% -3.0%
15% -21.4% 28% -12.4%
20% -29.1% 23% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$34 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$3,323
Realized+$2,085
Unrealized+$353
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses101 / 98
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions17
Markets (closed)199 / 216
History coverage649d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 No 72¢ 78¢ $2,019 $2,177 +$158 (+8%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%? Yes 33¢ 56¢ $250 $429 +$179 (+72%)
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 42¢ 42¢ $263 $265 +$2 (+1%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B? No 74¢ 74¢ $163 $164 +$1 (+1%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.3B? No 34¢ 32¢ $102 $94 −$8 (-8%)
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 2.0%-2.5%? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+3%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? No 28¢ 56¢ $17 $33 +$17 (+102%)
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 13¢ 12¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.3B? No 8¢ 22¢ $7 $19 +$12 (+169%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5%? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $23 $17 −$6 (-27%)
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 9¢ 9¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B? No 15¢ 7¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-53%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.2B? Yes 23¢ 50¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+115%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be below -3%? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+297%)
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth <2%? Yes 7¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+163%)
Will NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $7.0B? No 25¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.1B? Jun 27 $5 +$5 +108%
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%? Jun 24 $15 +$36 +238%
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.5B? Jun 24 $12 +$4 +31%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 +$8 +92%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B? Jun 21 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B? Jun 21 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 18 $159 +$219 +138%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $32 −$31 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $24 +$8 +33%
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Jun 12 $18 −$8 -42%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $8 $0 +5%
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $373 −$365 -98%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Jun 09 $285 −$210 -74%
Will Mohamed Salah play in Premier League next? Jun 09 $12 −$9 -76%
Will JM Smucker (SJM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth be above 20%? Jun 03 $167 +$753 +450%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B? Jun 03 $102 +$116 +114%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Palo Alto Networks Q3 Next-Generation Security ARR be above $8.5B Jun 02 $21 −$19 -92%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $12 +$9 +73%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$10 -95%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $4 $0 -5%
Will Five Below Q1 comparable sales growth be between 17.5% and 20%? May 28 $52 −$50 -98%
Will Costco Q3 US adjusted comparable sales growth be between 6.5% and May 28 $150 +$10 +6%
Will Dollar Tree Q1 comparable store net sales growth be between 3% an May 28 $188 +$55 +29%
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.325B? May 27 $121 +$50 +41%
Will Dollar Tree Q1 comparable store net sales growth be below 3%? May 27 $33 −$32 -97%
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth May 27 $172 +$55 +32%
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.60B? May 21 $115 +$315 +274%
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.65B? May 21 $131 +$77 +58%
Will Workday Q1 total subscription revenue backlog be above $29.0B? May 21 $19 +$5 +26%
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%? May 20 $205 +$20 +10%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 20 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be above 3%? May 20 $32 +$847 +2620%
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%? May 20 $320 +$789 +246%
Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.8B? May 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be between 1% and 3%? May 20 $47 +$23 +50%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 19 $13 −$11 -87%
Will Dell Q1 Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue be above $21.5B? May 18 $60 −$2 -3%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 18 $28 +$42 +153%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $21 −$1 -5%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 17 $13 +$4 +28%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 17 $60 +$6 +9%
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? May 17 $12 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B? BUY No 74¢ $45 55m
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.3B? SELL No 37¢ $36 55m
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B? BUY No 74¢ $120 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 9¢ $8 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $154 1h
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 2.0%-2.5%? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 1h
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.3B? BUY No 38¢ $117 1h
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 2.0%-2.5%? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 72¢ $2,019 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 13¢ $12 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $18 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $13 46h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $9 46h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $26 46h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $43 46h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $9 46h
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0% BUY Yes 60¢ $24 46h
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1. BUY No 8¢ $7 46h
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be below -3%? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $5 47h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $12 47h
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 2.0%-2.5%? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 47h
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.3B? BUY No 25¢ $3 47h
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.3B? BUY No 22¢ $19 47h
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.1B? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 47h
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth <2%? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4d
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth <2%? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4d
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth <2%? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4d
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0% BUY Yes 40¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,323.12 · official $3,323.23 (match) · 679 history records