Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x124f…0dea world 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,677 (-20%) realized −$5,788 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%42W / 49L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day66.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$472
other 5% +$348
politics 4% −$109
finance 3% +$34
crypto 2% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +24.0% +12.2% 86% 57% +28.7%
≤30d 56 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 36% -4.0%
≤90d 91 -20.0% -27.6% 46% 32% -8.1%
all 91 -20.0% -27.6% 46% 32% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 32% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 18% -16.9%
15% -40.9% 13% -24.9%
20% -46.7% 12% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$76 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$5,248
Realized−$5,788
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses42 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions37
Markets (closed)91 / 122
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day66.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? No 87¢ 82¢ $570 $538 −$32 (-6%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 66¢ 74¢ $434 $484 +$50 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $437 $453 +$16 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 82¢ 85¢ $431 $445 +$14 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 74¢ $355 $391 +$36 (+10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $365 $370 +$5 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $364 $365 +$1 (+0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No 34¢ 84¢ $118 $289 +$171 (+146%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $222 $235 +$13 (+6%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 64¢ $183 $225 +$42 (+23%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $216 $224 +$8 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 56¢ 99¢ $114 $202 +$88 (+77%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 90¢ 78¢ $202 $176 −$27 (-13%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $118 $128 +$10 (+9%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $94 $100 +$7 (+7%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 22¢ 70¢ $27 $89 +$61 (+223%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $71 $65 −$6 (-9%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $58 $65 +$7 (+11%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 60¢ $55 $63 +$8 (+14%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 79¢ 57¢ $70 $50 −$19 (-28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 10¢ 13¢ $38 $49 +$11 (+30%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $36 $31 −$5 (-13%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? No 37¢ 38¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $819 +$91 +11%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 25 $62 +$2 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $431 +$868 +201%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $817 +$82 +10%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $116 +$16 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $427 +$119 +28%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $68 −$50 -73%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $144 +$7 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 18 $234 +$16 +7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $124 −$75 -60%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $35 +$18 +52%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $180 −$176 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $60 −$52 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $690 +$197 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$21 +418%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $277 +$8 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $828 −$96 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $226 +$10 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $859 −$37 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $69 +$12 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $77 −$77 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -88%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $358 −$197 -55%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $266 −$199 -75%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $441 +$57 +13%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $314 +$54 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $106 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 06 $25 −$8 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $439 +$74 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $157 +$88 +56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $162 −$159 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 −$19 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $14 −$13 -95%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $161 +$56 +35%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 02 $273 −$206 -76%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $107 −$72 -68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $286 −$59 -21%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $270 +$30 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $519 +$295 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $587 +$362 +62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $64 −$64 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 31 $448 +$20 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,488 −$556 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 1h
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? BUY No 38¢ $6 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 86¢ $5 11h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 88¢ $76 11h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 88¢ $6 11h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 88¢ $5 11h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 88¢ $0 11h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 88¢ $9 11h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 92¢ $28 13h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 92¢ $60 13h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY No 91¢ $14 13h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $70 16h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $22 17h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $161 17h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $61 17h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $71 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $76 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $75 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $110 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $19 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $42 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $13 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $88 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $94 25h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $173 29h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $13 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,248.43 · official $5,247.58 (match) · 3500 history records