Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
12 0x1250…8f99 sports 1407 markets active 1h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52,520 (-6%) realized −$52,521 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%733W / 672L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1,201est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$426
14 days+$114
30 days−$4,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$33,051
crypto 10% −$11,251
other 9% +$153
politics 5% −$8,099
world 0% −$1,555
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.7% -6.2% 63% 63% -4.6%
≤30d 81 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 43% -23.7%
≤90d 411 +0.2% -9.4% 49% 48% -11.9%
all 1405 -5.8% -14.8% 52% 48% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 48% -15.1%
10% -22.9% 41% -23.2%
15% -30.4% 35% -30.6%
20% -37.2% 28% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$742) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$446 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$52,521
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses733 / 672
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,201
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1405 / 1407
History coverage699d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 461 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $371 +$169 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $251 +$120 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $433 −$425 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,020 +$914 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $751 −$737 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$39 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $476 −$437 -92%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $398 +$79 +20%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $924 +$598 +65%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $530 +$395 +75%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $590 −$61 -10%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $483 +$108 +22%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $363 +$119 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $923 −$559 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $250 +$273 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $200 −$197 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 07 $76 −$74 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $940 −$923 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $255 +$543 +213%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $246 +$152 +62%
Will Tokushima Vortis win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $283 +$448 +158%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $251 +$65 +26%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $300 −$17 -6%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $424 −$419 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $222 +$202 +91%
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 +$117 +115%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $211 −$208 -98%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $344 −$336 -98%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $365 −$21 -6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $195 +$171 +88%
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $385 −$191 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Senegal end in a draw? May 31 $293 −$286 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? May 31 $199 −$194 -98%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $127 −$124 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $250 −$123 -49%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $93 +$57 +62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $49 −$48 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $299 −$251 -84%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $66 +$27 +42%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 30 $301 −$297 -99%
Will FC Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $598 −$590 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $183 −$179 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $672 +$110 +16%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $499 +$323 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 53m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 30¢ $536 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $540 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $371 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $251 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $433 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $250 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $250 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $252 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,020 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $40 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $39 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $476 4d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $477 4d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $398 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $924 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 94¢ $925 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $530 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 48¢ $530 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $590 5d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Indiana Fever 99¢ $591 5d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 80¢ $483 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $481 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $363 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.32 · official $14.32 (match) · 2816 history records