Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1255…fa6f other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 213d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$14,837 (-26%) realized −$14,834 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%8W / 42L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1,107per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 213d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$12,734
world 9% −$1,978
sports 9% −$5,114
crypto 5% −$2,586
politics 5% −$111
economics 4% −$2,490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -83.9% -85.4% 5% 5% -11.4%
≤30d 37 -83.9% -85.4% 5% 5% -11.4%
≤90d 37 -83.9% -85.4% 5% 5% -11.4%
all 50 -50.2% -55.0% 16% 16% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.0% 16% -8.8%
10% -59.3% 16% -17.5%
15% -63.2% 16% -25.5%
20% -66.8% 16% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,973 vs −$746 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$14,834
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses8 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage213d
Avg bet$1,107
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Over 40¢ 38¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $625 −$625 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,053 −$2,053 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,076 −$3,076 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 30? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 20 $564 −$564 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 20 $308 −$308 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 20 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $716 −$716 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $615 −$615 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $615 −$615 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $411 −$411 -100%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $618 −$618 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $640 −$640 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Jun 20 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 20 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $7,403 −$7,403 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $1,485 −$1,485 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1,790 −$1,790 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9,185 +$22,372 +244%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 −$61 -30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7,097 +$5,853 +82%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $3,998 −$670 -17%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $2,360 −$452 -19%
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? Dec 15 $102 +$258 +253%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 10 $63 +$237 +376%
Spread: Lions (-2.5) Nov 30 $6 +$4 +82%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Houston Cougars Nov 26 $67 −$22 -33%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 21? Nov 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 23 $631 −$631 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $2,781 +$2,590 +93%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Nov 20 $361 +$441 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 3m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $31,557 33m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $3,076 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,050 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $455 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $170 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 11¢ $2,053 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,042 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $5,093 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 7¢ $1,028 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,340 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $458 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $6,063 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $615 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $716 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $615 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $411 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $145 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12,950 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $7,097 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $202 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $280 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $136 80d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $100 82d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $100 82d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $100 82d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $100 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.68 · official $96.68 (match) · 150 history records