Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x1255…174b crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%23W / 13L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 53% -7.2%
≤30d 36 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 53% -7.2%
≤90d 36 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 53% -7.2%
all 36 +4.7% -5.3% 64% 53% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 53% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 31% -16.1%
15% -22.6% 17% -24.2%
20% -30.2% 8% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses23 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $36 −$17 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$14 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records