Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x1259…5c05
other · 175 markets active 9h ago
4.5score
+$1,875 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,878 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,423
Realized+$1,878
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses32 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)173 / 175
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,613
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 2 History 173 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$22
14 days+$43
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,262 $1,261 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $161 $161 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5,431 −$8 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $2,702 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,338 −$4 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5,806 −$10 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $2,904 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $8,175 −$10 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $76 +$77 +101%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $6,081 −$6 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $5,593 −$7 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 05 $67 +$37 +55%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,622 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $5,877 −$6 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $86 −$86 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $49 +$101 +206%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $4,001 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,365 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,485 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $146 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $547 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $567 +$1 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $234 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $212 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $215 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $234 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $210 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $6,482 −$7 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,459 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $210 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $219 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $594 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 24 $54 +$89 +165%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $845 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $53 +$56 +105%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $4,250 −$6 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$154
other 40% −$286
sports 11% +$2,327
world 1% −$1
culture 1% −$5
economics 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,262 8h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 8h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 13h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,362 29h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,364 30h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,242 31h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 32h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,366 33h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,367 35h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,316 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,318 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,248 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,250 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,431 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $161 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,433 3d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,530 4d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,533 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,542 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,544 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,048 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,049 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,096 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,098 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,227 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 6d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 49¢ $76 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,203 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,205 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $985 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.6% -2.6% 8% 8% -9.5%
≤30d 64 +5.1% -4.9% 12% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 126 -4.1% -13.2% 9% 6% -9.1%
all 173 +5.5% -4.6% 18% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 11% -8.9%
10% -13.7% 11% -17.6%
15% -22.0% 10% -25.6%
20% -29.7% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,422.72 · official $1,422.72 (match) · 596 history records