Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
12 0x125a…df71 sports 394 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$334 (+8%) realized +$344 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate65%250W / 137L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days+$256
14 days+$254
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$209
other 2% −$1
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +8.4% -1.9% 50% 46% -1.1%
≤30d 387 +1.5% -8.1% 65% 60% -4.7%
≤90d 387 +1.5% -8.1% 65% 60% -4.7%
all 387 +1.5% -8.1% 65% 60% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 60% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 42% -13.8%
15% -24.9% 29% -22.1%
20% -32.3% 19% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$344
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses250 / 137
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions7
Markets (closed)387 / 394
History coverage17d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 56¢ 55¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-3%)
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Billy Harris 73¢ 76¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning Loes Ebeling Koning 18¢ 29¢ $22 $35 +$13 (+61%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Matias Soto 81¢ 94¢ $22 $25 +$4 (+17%)
ITF Blois: Jenny Lim vs Sofya Lansere Jenny Lim 37¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 63¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $61 +$59 +97%
ITF Ystad: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 17 $18 +$5 +26%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $51 −$28 -55%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $8 +$5 +60%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $26 +$7 +26%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 +$6 +226%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $18 +$27 +146%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $37 +$49 +134%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $11 +$3 +27%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $33 −$5 -15%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $60 +$44 +73%
Nardi vs. Bertola: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $21 −$4 -21%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $12 −$1 -7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $23 −$3 -14%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $15 −$4 -25%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $61 −$11 -18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 +$23 +158%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $35 +$42 +119%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $28 +$7 +26%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $12 +$4 +32%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $13 −$11 -86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $12 +$9 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $22 −$11 -47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$12 +93%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $13 +$17 +129%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $41 −$6 -14%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $33 +$9 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $26 +$6 +22%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $23 +$2 +7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $59 +$82 +140%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $60 +$11 +18%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $21 −$4 -21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $14 +$3 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 73¢ $43 2m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 56¢ $53 4m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 81¢ $22 26m
ITF Blois: Jenny Lim vs Sofya Lansere BUY Jenny Lim 37¢ $4 33m
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning BUY Loes Ebeling Koning 18¢ $22 35m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 72¢ $61 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 63¢ $26 1h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 31¢ $23 1h
ITF Ystad: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Lucie Petruzelova BUY Lucie Petruzelova 79¢ $18 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Katie Volynets 22¢ $23 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 47¢ $51 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 50¢ $61 2h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 82¢ $60 2h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Alessandra Mazzola 30¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $8 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $10 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 79¢ $26 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 30¢ $3 2d
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 40¢ $18 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 48¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $6 2d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 50¢ $3 2d
Nardi vs. Bertola: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Over 32¢ $16 2d
Nardi vs. Bertola: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 39¢ $21 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 55¢ $33 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Tereza Valentova 29¢ $11 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 30¢ $12 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 71¢ $7 2d
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 42¢ $37 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 66¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.94 · official $154.99 · 751 history records