Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x125c…0ed7 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$650 (-14%) realized −$677 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$106
14 days−$478
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$279
other 46% −$902
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.0% +3.1% 100% 80% +2.5%
≤30d 9 -13.0% -21.2% 67% 56% -29.1%
≤90d 29 -11.2% -19.7% 66% 48% -23.7%
all 29 -11.2% -19.7% 66% 48% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 48% -23.7%
10% -27.4% 21% -31.0%
15% -34.4% 14% -37.6%
20% -40.8% 7% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$110 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$677
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage59d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Luis Díaz: 1+ shots Yes 90¢ 100¢ $245 $272 +$27 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Michael Olise: 1+ shots Jun 26 $100 +$18 +18%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots Jun 26 $203 +$24 +12%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots Jun 25 $187 +$16 +8%
Promise David: 1+ shots Jun 24 $164 +$23 +14%
Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots Jun 24 $140 +$24 +17%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $197 +$28 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $411 −$408 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $612 −$4 -1%
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $432 −$427 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 18 $409 +$87 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $343 +$22 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $25 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $153 +$15 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $301 +$52 +17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $90 +$17 +18%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 13 $29 −$20 -69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $97 +$33 +34%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $79 +$41 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $20 +$1 +7%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 03 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $13 +$5 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou May 01 $15 +$4 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $14 +$1 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 29 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luis Díaz: 1+ shots BUY Yes 90¢ $145 2h
Luis Díaz: 1+ shots BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2h
Michael Olise: 1+ shots BUY Yes 84¢ $100 35h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots BUY Yes 89¢ $203 2d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots SELL Yes 100¢ $203 2d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots BUY Yes 92¢ $187 2d
Promise David: 1+ shots BUY Yes 87¢ $164 3d
Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots BUY Yes 85¢ $140 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 62¢ $224 10d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $197 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $411 10d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $608 11d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 88¢ $612 11d
Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots BUY Yes 58¢ $203 11d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $432 39d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $409 41d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 95¢ $200 41d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 92¢ $142 41d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $25 41d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY MOUZ 91¢ $153 41d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play BUY Natus Vincere 88¢ $186 42d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play BUY Natus Vincere 80¢ $115 42d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $107 45d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S BUY Aurora Gaming 84¢ $90 45d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FUT Esports 71¢ $19 45d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 24¢ $9 45d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 75¢ $29 45d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $97 46d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Yaroslav Amosov 65¢ $79 49d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No $10 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.01 · official $272.01 (match) · 60 history records