Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x125e…d1db sports 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$849 (-11%) realized −$839 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%73W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$139
14 days+$115
30 days−$729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$896
world 11% −$52
other 11% +$255
crypto 8% −$149
politics 4% −$30
finance 2% +$9
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -19.7% -27.3% 47% 47% +19.1%
≤30d 36 -40.3% -46.0% 36% 33% -38.1%
≤90d 81 -18.6% -26.3% 43% 41% -25.5%
all 188 -15.7% -23.8% 39% 37% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 37% -20.2%
10% -31.0% 33% -27.8%
15% -37.7% 28% -34.8%
20% -43.8% 21% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$22 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$839
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses73 / 115
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions7
Markets (closed)188 / 202
History coverage157d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Under 33¢ 26¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-20%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 +$28 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $61 +$43 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $25 +$40 +158%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$18 +21%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 +$31 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$28 +140%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$14 -67%
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 07 $342 +$37 +11%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 07 $153 +$148 +97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 07 $303 −$303 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 07 $374 −$374 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 07 $233 −$233 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 07 $158 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 −$36 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $88 +$16 +18%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $30 +$7 +23%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $138 +$33 +24%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $14 +$57 +412%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $35 +$47 +137%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $21 +$106 +497%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 29 $16 −$7 -40%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $63 +$19 +31%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 11 $30 +$17 +57%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $22 +$24 +105%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $14 +$9 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $41 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $104 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $62 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $20 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Morocco win on 2026 BUY 6¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 2026- BUY 1¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 8¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 58¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 5¢ $21 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 81¢ $50 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 7¢ $10 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 10¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $85 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $66 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $25 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.26 · official $158.13 (match) · 557 history records