Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1267…ebec sports 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%17W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$1
politics 20% −$1
other 18% −$15
culture 10% −$1
economics 8% $0
crypto 6% −$1
world 5% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 168 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses17 / 151
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage156d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $24 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $75 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $204 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 01 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 28 $136 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $131 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 28 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 28 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $96 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 25 $56 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $61 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $179 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 1h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $24 12d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $24 12d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $20 25d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $20 25d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $30 32d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $30 32d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 108d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 108d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 91¢ $24 108d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 91¢ $24 108d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $28 108d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $28 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $24 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 108d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 93¢ $27 108d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 93¢ $27 108d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $19 108d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $19 108d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 108d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 108d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $28 108d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $28 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 98¢ $25 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 108d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $31 108d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $31 108d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $30 109d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $30 109d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $24 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.60 · official $25.60 (match) · 693 history records