Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1268…3575 crypto 59 markets active 6d ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$671 (+22%) realized +$671 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 43L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$654
politics 8% −$2
other 6% −$10
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$6
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 53% -7.7%
≤30d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 53% -7.7%
≤90d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 53% 53% -7.7%
all 59 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 19% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 19% +10.3%
10% -19.0% 19% -0.2%
15% -26.8% 19% -9.9%
20% -34.0% 19% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$19 · ×4.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$671
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage348d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$94 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -97%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $4 $0 -6%
Will Trump say "Fake News" or "CNN" in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $5 $0 -4%
Kraken vs. Ducks Feb 19 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of January 5 above $179? Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 6AM ET Oct 17 $620 +$620 +100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine? Aug 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Aug 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Aug 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Aug 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $12 $0 -1%
Will R win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will V win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 12 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 11? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 11 $13 $0 -0%
Mariners vs. Yankees Jul 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jaime Mulet win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $15 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Elon Musk as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Branko Marinković win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 05 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $89 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 6d
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? SELL No 17¢ $3 117d
Will Trump say "Fake News" or "CNN" in Rome, GA on February 19? SELL No 13¢ $3 117d
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? SELL No 25¢ $5 117d
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? BUY No 18¢ $4 117d
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? BUY No 26¢ $5 117d
Will Trump say "Fake News" or "CNN" in Rome, GA on February 19? BUY No 18¢ $4 117d
Kraken vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 57¢ $10 133d
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of January 5 above $179? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 190d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 100¢ $1 204d
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records