Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x126b…a7c0 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1
other 25% +$22
crypto 9% $0
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% $0
finance 5% $0
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 9 +0.6% -8.9% 44% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.4%
all 29 +2.4% -7.4% 45% 7% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 7% -5.9%
10% -16.3% 3% -14.9%
15% -24.3% 3% -23.1%
20% -31.8% 3% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.15 per $1 lost it wins $9.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage400d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $28 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $54 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $45 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $3 $0 -11%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 04 $6 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $7 −$1 -12%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jun 03 $30 +$21 +72%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $2 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $28 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $29 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $28 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $30 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $30 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $17 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $17 39h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $28 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $28 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $28 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $28 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $0 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $27 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $11 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $16 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $26 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $30 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $30 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $27 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $17 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $14 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $14 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.90 · official $29.07 (match) · 109 history records