Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x126e…329f crypto 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%139W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$14
world 19% +$9
crypto 15% −$17
tech 11% +$1
finance 8% +$15
politics 5% −$12
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 82 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 2% -7.8%
all 149 -4.9% -13.9% 93% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 2% -9.2%
10% -22.2% 1% -17.9%
15% -29.7% 1% -25.9%
20% -36.6% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses139 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage563d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $451 $453 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $237 +$15 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $125 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $39 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $125 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $164 +$4 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 22 $159 +$5 +3%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $390 +$5 +1%
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $318 +$2 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 05 $34 +$5 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $451 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $125 25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 26d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 100¢ $125 27d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 99¢ $39 27d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 28d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 31d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $164 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $159 36d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 94¢ $237 37d
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $390 41d
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $72 42d
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $318 43d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 45d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $2 45d
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $3 46d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 46d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $2 47d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $4 47d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 47d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 47d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 49d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 50d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $34 60d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.72 · official $452.72 (match) · 305 history records