Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x126f…a49d sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,123 (-11%) realized −$1,118 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%43W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day82.4pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 40% -19.9%
≤30d 86 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 40% -19.9%
≤90d 86 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 40% -19.9%
all 86 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 40% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 40% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 27% -27.5%
15% -37.1% 19% -34.5%
20% -43.2% 13% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$60 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$1,118
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses43 / 43
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage4d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day82.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 67¢ 62¢ $97 $91 −$7 (-7%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 44¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 48¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $34 −$7 -20%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $246 −$59 -24%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $312 +$131 +42%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $156 +$9 +6%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $43 −$16 -36%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $36 +$4 +12%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $19 +$2 +12%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $30 +$8 +27%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $128 −$115 -89%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $92 +$124 +134%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $18 +$5 +27%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $83 +$116 +140%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $182 −$83 -46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $153 +$86 +56%
Panama vs. England: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $237 −$204 -86%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $127 +$24 +19%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $175 +$25 +14%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $336 +$52 +16%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $131 +$29 +22%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $265 −$255 -96%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $262 −$62 -24%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 27 $3 $0 +14%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $68 −$18 -26%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $36 −$11 -32%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $118 −$101 -85%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $17 −$17 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $150 +$65 +43%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $363 +$81 +22%
Norway vs. France: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $31 +$18 +58%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $9 +$6 +71%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $18 −$4 -21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $183 +$72 +40%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $19 −$19 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $75 −$74 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $40 −$37 -93%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $206 −$139 -68%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $218 +$16 +8%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $331 +$70 +21%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $207 −$8 -4%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $297 −$231 -78%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $25 +$8 +31%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $22 +$50 +231%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $121 −$20 -16%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $288 +$69 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 66¢ $66 1m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 67¢ $10 1m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 71¢ $22 1m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 11m
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $5 12m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $3 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 37¢ $14 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 89¢ $6 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $2 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $4 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $16 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $19 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $146 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 20¢ $3 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $10 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $11 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $18 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 77¢ $2 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 30¢ $28 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 77¢ $7 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 31¢ $31 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $11 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $135 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 89¢ $179 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.97 · official $120.97 (match) · 441 history records