Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1273…0bed crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+3%) realized +$68 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%45W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$63
14 days−$28
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 52% -4.7%
≤30d 73 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 47% -10.2%
≤90d 86 -8.0% -16.7% 52% 42% -10.4%
all 86 -8.0% -16.7% 52% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 42% -10.4%
10% -24.7% 36% -19.0%
15% -32.0% 27% -26.8%
20% -38.6% 22% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses45 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage34d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 36¢ 50¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $72 +$56 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$19 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$34 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$76 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$48 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$29 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$12 -40%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$29 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$35 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$83 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$31 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$29 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$19 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$80 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$20 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $73 +$93 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$32 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$27 -87%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $144 +$36 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$19 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $72 +$25 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$9 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $39 +$26 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $119 +$36 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $65 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $107 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $37 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $107 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $72 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $24 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $237 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $155 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.43 · official $42.43 (match) · 207 history records