Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1276…1eba crypto 846 markets active 2d ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$387 (-3%) realized −$387 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%454W / 391L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$164
14 days−$105
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$147
sports 33% −$141
crypto 32% −$207
world 0% +$17
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.8% -12.1% 65% 41% -35.4%
≤30d 75 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 48% -16.6%
≤90d 750 -11.2% -19.6% 51% 43% -15.8%
all 845 -3.7% -12.8% 54% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 44% -13.2%
10% -21.2% 37% -21.5%
15% -28.8% 29% -29.1%
20% -35.8% 22% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$387
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses454 / 391
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)845 / 846
History coverage91d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 845 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $29 −$8 -28%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$17 -66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 +$6 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$12 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $16 +$10 +64%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $100 +$16 +16%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $94 +$5 +6%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $89 +$5 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $68 +$21 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $58 +$10 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $43 +$15 +34%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $60 −$16 -27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $62 +$7 +11%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $59 +$3 +5%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $53 +$7 +13%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $40 +$12 +30%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $32 +$6 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $24 +$7 +28%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $60 −$36 -60%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $46 +$15 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $96 −$50 -52%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $90 +$5 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4 $0 +9%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $67 +$28 +42%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $51 −$9 -18%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $19 +$7 +36%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $53 +$5 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $6 +$5 +84%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $50 +$3 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $30 +$19 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $28 +$10 +35%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $79 −$30 -38%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $101 +$7 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $41 +$10 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 63¢ $21 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $29 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $27 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $17 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $105 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $105 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $100 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $54 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 82¢ $27 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego BUY 19¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1864 history records