Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x127b…d79b other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$11
world 43% −$2
politics 9% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.4% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.4% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 33 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 6% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -11.1%
10% -18.6% 3% -19.6%
15% -26.5% 3% -27.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage365d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $26 −$2 -6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $95 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $44 +$2 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $2 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $6 +$2 +37%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $31 −$14 -47%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $21 $0 +1%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 03 $1 $0 -17%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 02 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $47 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $48 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 24h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $17 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $9 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $50 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $50 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $46 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.87 · official $0.87 (match) · 103 history records