Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x127b…afa7 crypto 812 markets active 3h ago coverage 151d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$557 (-5%) realized −$235 · open −$322
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%341W / 465L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days+$201
14 days+$84
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$568
world 9% −$242
other 2% −$96
economics 1% −$37
politics 1% +$105
sports 0% +$49
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 20% +29.8%
≤30d 74 -37.5% -43.5% 15% 14% -16.5%
≤90d 89 -30.0% -36.7% 17% 16% -17.8%
all 806 -18.3% -26.1% 42% 26% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 26% -13.6%
10% -33.2% 7% -21.8%
15% -39.6% 5% -29.4%
20% -45.5% 4% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$235
Unrealized−$322
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses341 / 465
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)806 / 812
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $293 $83 −$210 (-72%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $65 $53 −$12 (-18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $96 $35 −$61 (-64%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 217 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +301%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $25 +$87 +347%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$12 -86%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $40 +$106 +264%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$61 +596%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$18 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -94%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $18 +$158 +876%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $68 −$65 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $40 8h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.87 · official $241.87 (match) · 3500 history records