Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x127c…d586 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$601 (+34%) realized +$591 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$601
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.5% -2.8% 70% 57% +22.1%
≤30d 23 +7.5% -2.8% 70% 57% +22.1%
≤90d 23 +7.5% -2.8% 70% 57% +22.1%
all 23 +7.5% -2.8% 70% 57% +22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 57% +22.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 48% +10.4%
15% -20.6% 35% -0.3%
20% -28.3% 17% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$24 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.51 per $1 lost it wins $4.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$591
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 83¢ 98¢ $55 $65 +$10 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 30 $46 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 30 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 30 $510 +$189 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 30 $136 +$320 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 30 $133 +$57 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 30 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 30 $86 +$20 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 30 $61 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 30 $166 −$100 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 30 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 30 $81 +$25 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 30 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 30 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 30 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 30 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 30 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $46 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $253 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $256 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.73 · official $62.73 · 65 history records