Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
12 0x127c…ef1b crypto 1573 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-4%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%764W / 809L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$99
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -11.8% -20.2% 51% 51% -15.8%
≤30d 589 -10.9% -19.3% 48% 48% -19.6%
≤90d 1573 -6.4% -15.3% 49% 49% -15.5%
all 1573 -6.4% -15.3% 49% 49% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 49% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 47% -23.6%
15% -30.8% 47% -31.0%
20% -37.6% 28% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses764 / 809
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1573 / 1573
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1573 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records