Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:37:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x127f…8a29 other 402 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,018 (-4%) realized −$7,018 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%84W / 306L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$324
7 days−$351
14 days−$1,341
30 days−$1,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$640
sports 46% −$8,106
world 0% −$124
crypto 0% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.7% -12.8% 27% 27% -19.1%
≤30d 21 -31.2% -37.7% 19% 19% -37.6%
≤90d 60 -6.2% -15.2% 18% 18% -34.5%
all 390 +8.3% -2.0% 22% 21% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 21% -14.1%
10% -11.4% 21% -22.3%
15% -19.9% 21% -29.8%
20% -27.8% 19% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +27% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$932 vs −$282 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,018
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses84 / 306
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)390 / 402
History coverage154d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 390 Trades
no open positions (293 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $450 +$568 +126%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $249 −$244 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$49 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $149 −$145 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $498 −$487 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $148 −$146 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $499 +$228 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $299 −$291 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $49 −$48 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $100 +$244 +244%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $122 +$768 +628%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $166 −$162 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $111 −$108 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 −$198 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $296 −$294 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$97 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $54 −$53 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $139 −$135 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $27 −$26 -97%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $68 +$34 +50%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $90 −$89 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $73 −$71 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $112 +$272 +242%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $73 −$73 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $60 −$58 -97%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $81 −$80 -99%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Apr 23 $55 −$54 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $70 +$452 +647%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $112 −$109 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $56 −$54 -97%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $117 −$114 -98%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $198 −$196 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $108 −$105 -98%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $0 +$2 +612%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $42 +$541 +1287%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $63 −$61 -98%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $68 −$68 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $150 −$146 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,017 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $450 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 28¢ $249 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Mikel Oyarzab BUY 2¢ $50 14h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Mikel Oyarzab BUY 9¢ $150 27h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Mikel Oyarzab BUY 19¢ $300 27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 12¢ $149 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Brazil: B BUY 14¢ $152 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $498 3d
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals AND Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Vinícius Júnior: BUY 2¢ $64 3d
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals AND Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Vinícius Júnior: BUY 2¢ $36 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Jonathan David: 1+ goal BUY 4¢ $155 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: Bot BUY 7¢ $156 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: Bot BUY 23¢ $205 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $395 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: Both BUY 9¢ $51 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1 BUY 3¢ $51 3d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ go BUY 7¢ $26 3d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ go BUY 3¢ $62 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $2 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $44 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 7¢ $2 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 11¢ $102 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $6 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $718 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $2 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $499 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1764 history records